I hope you all got as lucky as I did with Peyton Manning's record-tying game in Thursday night's season opener, but for those of you who did not, I hope this augments the advice I'm about to give-- start your studs. Don't for a minute second-guess those players you spent valuable picks on in the draft. I don't care if the match-up isn't ideal. It wasn't for Peyton, even less so for Demaryius, and both wound up with monster games. Week 1 is a proving ground. Everything is up in the air, and with no data or film we have nothing to base our selections on other than reputation.
I choose to exclude stats from the preseason because history has convicted it of perjury, evidenced last year, as the Eagles went 4-0 and the Falcons, 1-3. There are, however, clues that can be derived from preseason play, for example, a player's movement (i.e. lateral quickness, vertical quickness, hands, leaping ability, power), rapports between players on both offense and defense (i.e. Geno Smith's crappy rapport with all of his offense--looks like another horrific season in the making for the Jets), and overall team unity (i.e. is the team happy with the coaching and vice versa). This information is particularly helpful when scrutinizing rookies, as it is their first look at NFL opponents. These clues may lend insight toward but by NO means answer the big question for week 1, which is "who will come out of the gates strong?"
It occurred to me for a few moments that my star Brandon Marshall is playing the 3rd ranked pass defense in the Cincinnati Bengals, whereas Mike Wallace is playing the 29th ranked pass defense in the Cleveland Browns. I switched Wallace to my starting position, Marshall to the bench. After a few more moments of thought, three things occurred to me. Firstly, Wallace is unproven in this new offense, and that 29th ranked pass D stat I just fell victim to does not belie the presence of Joe Haden, who is definitely capable of a receiver lockdown in that Cleveland backfield. Secondly, I did NOT draft Brandon Marshall to sit on my bench, EVER. And, finally, I would much rather see Brandon Marshall put up a mediocre performance in my starting lineup than to watch 30 points slip away as he goes berserk from my bench spot, for he has already proven his propensity for big games.
If you were thinking about benching Arian Foster because of his "injuries" or head coach Gary Kubiak's words, don't. Just don't. When a win is on the line, you rely on your best players, and Foster is the best player on that offense. Also, he is probably healthier than the Texans are letting off (he's a vegan! dude is all about his health). I made the mistake of sitting a great player for "health concerns" last season opener when Adrian Peterson made his return from that ACL tear. 20 points down the drain. Thanks AP, for the lesson you've taught me--it won't happen again.
Trust your starters. Don't let an unfavorable matchup sway you from playing a good player until you've seen some real season play. Play your guys who have already proven themselves worthy, and bench those unproven guys and the rookies who haven't seen a minute in a real game. You might miss out on a Julius Thomas-esque performance, but don't fear, 90% of you won't.
No comments:
Post a Comment