I hope you all got as lucky as I did with Peyton Manning's record-tying game in Thursday night's season opener, but for those of you who did not, I hope this augments the advice I'm about to give-- start your studs. Don't for a minute second-guess those players you spent valuable picks on in the draft. I don't care if the match-up isn't ideal. It wasn't for Peyton, even less so for Demaryius, and both wound up with monster games. Week 1 is a proving ground. Everything is up in the air, and with no data or film we have nothing to base our selections on other than reputation.
I choose to exclude stats from the preseason because history has convicted it of perjury, evidenced last year, as the Eagles went 4-0 and the Falcons, 1-3. There are, however, clues that can be derived from preseason play, for example, a player's movement (i.e. lateral quickness, vertical quickness, hands, leaping ability, power), rapports between players on both offense and defense (i.e. Geno Smith's crappy rapport with all of his offense--looks like another horrific season in the making for the Jets), and overall team unity (i.e. is the team happy with the coaching and vice versa). This information is particularly helpful when scrutinizing rookies, as it is their first look at NFL opponents. These clues may lend insight toward but by NO means answer the big question for week 1, which is "who will come out of the gates strong?"
It occurred to me for a few moments that my star Brandon Marshall is playing the 3rd ranked pass defense in the Cincinnati Bengals, whereas Mike Wallace is playing the 29th ranked pass defense in the Cleveland Browns. I switched Wallace to my starting position, Marshall to the bench. After a few more moments of thought, three things occurred to me. Firstly, Wallace is unproven in this new offense, and that 29th ranked pass D stat I just fell victim to does not belie the presence of Joe Haden, who is definitely capable of a receiver lockdown in that Cleveland backfield. Secondly, I did NOT draft Brandon Marshall to sit on my bench, EVER. And, finally, I would much rather see Brandon Marshall put up a mediocre performance in my starting lineup than to watch 30 points slip away as he goes berserk from my bench spot, for he has already proven his propensity for big games.
If you were thinking about benching Arian Foster because of his "injuries" or head coach Gary Kubiak's words, don't. Just don't. When a win is on the line, you rely on your best players, and Foster is the best player on that offense. Also, he is probably healthier than the Texans are letting off (he's a vegan! dude is all about his health). I made the mistake of sitting a great player for "health concerns" last season opener when Adrian Peterson made his return from that ACL tear. 20 points down the drain. Thanks AP, for the lesson you've taught me--it won't happen again.
Trust your starters. Don't let an unfavorable matchup sway you from playing a good player until you've seen some real season play. Play your guys who have already proven themselves worthy, and bench those unproven guys and the rookies who haven't seen a minute in a real game. You might miss out on a Julius Thomas-esque performance, but don't fear, 90% of you won't.
Saturday, September 7, 2013
Monday, August 26, 2013
Low Key Players I Like
Jason Cameron, TE, Cleveland Browns
This guy has great chemistry with QB Brandon Wheeden, and this chemistry has been on showcase throughout the preseason. In a year with so many questions at tight end, this guy might emerge in a similar fashion to Brandon Meyers' campaign last year in Oakland.
Daryl Richardson, RB, St. Louis Rams
I had constantly overlooked this RB until, while watching a preseason game last week, I found myself noticing how well a good passing game can open up the field for any running back. Subsequently, amidst a mock draft, my gaze settled upon Tavon Austin. I began piecing together the potential potency of the reformed Rams passing game. Chris Givens had somewhat of a breakout season last year. Now combine his 4.4 40 speed with Tavon Austin's outrageous 4.34 40 speed and you have 2 players that can quickly force the opposing backfield to take a few preemptive steps back. Also, with the addition of TE Jared Cook, you've got not only another talented receiver but also a good blocker. With him currently ranked 84th in ESPN's Top 300, who else are you gonna take? Vick Ballard? Mark Ingram? Psh...He's got the starting job!
Rueben Randle, WR, New York Giants
Randle impressed me last year. He wasn't spectacular, but he was a better than solid option for the Giants, who just cannot stay healthy. My prediction is that either Victor Cruz or Hakeem Nicks will be out or perpetually suffering from a nagging heel or knee injury. New York will be in dire need of a #2 wideout. Randle is their guy. My only qualm with this guy is his team. The Giants are infamously hit or miss, but if you're drafting this guy its probably not as an every-week-starter but as a flex option or bye-week fill-in. At WR47, I'll be taking him in my draft.
Chris Givens, WR, St. Louis Rams
You might have seen this one coming, but he's worth mentioning considering his draft position. I can't remember the last time I (or anyone for that matter) said "I like the Rams this year." Probably not since their elite Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce days. Be that as it may, I like the Rams this year. Their defense is solid and will do their part getting the offense back on the field. The offense that now has some great young talent with scary speed. Tavon Austin will likely be considered the #1 wideout, which will in turn bring him the attention of opposing teams' best defensive back. This leaves the door open for Chris Givens, who late last season began showing the world his skill and his chemistry with Bradford. #105 in ESPN's rankings, #136 on NFL.com.
This guy has great chemistry with QB Brandon Wheeden, and this chemistry has been on showcase throughout the preseason. In a year with so many questions at tight end, this guy might emerge in a similar fashion to Brandon Meyers' campaign last year in Oakland.
Daryl Richardson, RB, St. Louis Rams
I had constantly overlooked this RB until, while watching a preseason game last week, I found myself noticing how well a good passing game can open up the field for any running back. Subsequently, amidst a mock draft, my gaze settled upon Tavon Austin. I began piecing together the potential potency of the reformed Rams passing game. Chris Givens had somewhat of a breakout season last year. Now combine his 4.4 40 speed with Tavon Austin's outrageous 4.34 40 speed and you have 2 players that can quickly force the opposing backfield to take a few preemptive steps back. Also, with the addition of TE Jared Cook, you've got not only another talented receiver but also a good blocker. With him currently ranked 84th in ESPN's Top 300, who else are you gonna take? Vick Ballard? Mark Ingram? Psh...He's got the starting job!
Rueben Randle, WR, New York Giants
Randle impressed me last year. He wasn't spectacular, but he was a better than solid option for the Giants, who just cannot stay healthy. My prediction is that either Victor Cruz or Hakeem Nicks will be out or perpetually suffering from a nagging heel or knee injury. New York will be in dire need of a #2 wideout. Randle is their guy. My only qualm with this guy is his team. The Giants are infamously hit or miss, but if you're drafting this guy its probably not as an every-week-starter but as a flex option or bye-week fill-in. At WR47, I'll be taking him in my draft.
Chris Givens, WR, St. Louis Rams
You might have seen this one coming, but he's worth mentioning considering his draft position. I can't remember the last time I (or anyone for that matter) said "I like the Rams this year." Probably not since their elite Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce days. Be that as it may, I like the Rams this year. Their defense is solid and will do their part getting the offense back on the field. The offense that now has some great young talent with scary speed. Tavon Austin will likely be considered the #1 wideout, which will in turn bring him the attention of opposing teams' best defensive back. This leaves the door open for Chris Givens, who late last season began showing the world his skill and his chemistry with Bradford. #105 in ESPN's rankings, #136 on NFL.com.
Thursday, August 22, 2013
Draft Steals
LeSean McCoy (RB10, Overall 11)
LeSean has incredible talent. The guy has undoubtedly the best lateral cuts in the game,and his running style is perfect for the new Chip Kelly offense. He will see more running plays that get him to the outside, where he can use that acceleration and the shake-and-bake he employs so well. Not only that, we'll see an option game that will benefit both LeSean and his QB Michael Vick (see below). After last year, there is nowhere to go but up for the Eagles offense. I'm predicting that this year LeSean will return to where he belongs-- amongst the top 5 RBs in the league, and it's got me salivating at the draft prospects.
Brandon Marshall (WR4, Overall 20)
I've been running mock drafts lately, and frankly, Marshall's position has been the most surprising. I've been taking him every chance I get, successfully nabbing him as late as 25th. Given his size and skill, and the fact that he seems to be the only receiver Jay Cutler enjoys passing to, I am just short of positive that he will have another huge season. It's a no-brainer pick at his current draft position unless you've already scooped some combination of Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, and Dez Bryant on the way down, which is highly unlikely unless WRs were your salvation in recent past. So, the chances are, you haven't filled your starting WR slots yet, and I'm telling you--you'll love having this guy in your lineup.
Eddie Lacy (RB19, Overall 37)
This pick scares some drafters since were talking about a rookie here, a rookie who comes after the year of the rookie RB phenomenon. People are probably thinking "we've used up our allotment of luck on Alfred Morris, Doug Martin, and Trent Richardson." But lets go back to that last name, Trent Richardson. The guy who basically paved the way for Eddie Lacy. They have very similar running styles, have had identical coaching at Alabama, and have both won National Championships, now place one on the Cleveland Browns and the other on the Green Bay Packers. It's blindingly apparent that Eddie Lacy has the advantage. Brandon Weeden isn't scaring back any secondaries. Eddie Lacy has been placed in the perfect environment for success, and I will be bubbling with excitement if he's available when I go to draft him.
Dwayne Bowe (WR21, Overall 54)
Dwayne Bowe remains elite. He has incredible skill with both his hands and his feet. He gets open, even when he's doubled, and he catches anything within stretching distance. Now he has a new coach, and a great improvement in QB. The Chiefs' offense will surprise people, and if Dwayne Bowe and Alex Smith can create some quick chemistry, he will be a must-start from Day 1.
James Jones (WR22, Overall 56)
As soon as I heard Greg Jennings was jumping ship in Green Bay, I began contemplating James Jones' stock increase. Now I don't expect another 14 TD season from this guy, but I don't think I will be surprised if it happens again. At WR22, this guy is a STEAL.
Michael Vick (QB16, Overall 118)
Michael Vick has always had his pros and cons, but last year must have been humbling for him. His best asset is obviously his feet. The Chip Kelly offense is perfect for Mike Vick, if he can stay healthy. The focal point of this offense is motion, which will immediately reduce the number of sacks hammering away at that already aging body. He can get out of the pocket, which everyone except Andy Reid seems to understand is where he belongs. Vick never had a problem tossing an accurate short ball, and with this offense he will be throwing much more of those than the mid-long range tosses that got him into trouble. I also believe those quarterback keepers on the option near the goal line will begin converting to 6 points for your fantasy team on a regular basis.
Vernon Davis (TE5, Overall 70)
With Aaron Hernandez's departure and Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark obviously past their prime, the TE spot is looking barren this year. Vernon Davis had nothing short of a miserable last year. I'm electing to deem it an outlier in his otherwise productive career due to the unforeseeable flux in team dynamic in the bay area. This year, however, Alex Smith is gone and the team has committed to the Kaepernick era, and there is no confusion as to the team's identity. Initially I thought Vernon Davis might be subject to a trade, as it didn't appear he would receive his desired role in the offense. Then Michael Crabtree went down. And rumors began sprouting that Davis would be lining up as a WR. This was my confirmation that the 49ers coaching staff was of the same mind as all of us disgruntled fantasy owners; Vernon Davis needs a bigger role, and I believe it will be a big one. Given his uncommon speed for a TE, we very well might see him in the WR spot from time to time, and I think he will return to his role as a serious pain in the ass for defenses in the NFC.
LeSean has incredible talent. The guy has undoubtedly the best lateral cuts in the game,and his running style is perfect for the new Chip Kelly offense. He will see more running plays that get him to the outside, where he can use that acceleration and the shake-and-bake he employs so well. Not only that, we'll see an option game that will benefit both LeSean and his QB Michael Vick (see below). After last year, there is nowhere to go but up for the Eagles offense. I'm predicting that this year LeSean will return to where he belongs-- amongst the top 5 RBs in the league, and it's got me salivating at the draft prospects.
Brandon Marshall (WR4, Overall 20)
I've been running mock drafts lately, and frankly, Marshall's position has been the most surprising. I've been taking him every chance I get, successfully nabbing him as late as 25th. Given his size and skill, and the fact that he seems to be the only receiver Jay Cutler enjoys passing to, I am just short of positive that he will have another huge season. It's a no-brainer pick at his current draft position unless you've already scooped some combination of Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, and Dez Bryant on the way down, which is highly unlikely unless WRs were your salvation in recent past. So, the chances are, you haven't filled your starting WR slots yet, and I'm telling you--you'll love having this guy in your lineup.
Eddie Lacy (RB19, Overall 37)
This pick scares some drafters since were talking about a rookie here, a rookie who comes after the year of the rookie RB phenomenon. People are probably thinking "we've used up our allotment of luck on Alfred Morris, Doug Martin, and Trent Richardson." But lets go back to that last name, Trent Richardson. The guy who basically paved the way for Eddie Lacy. They have very similar running styles, have had identical coaching at Alabama, and have both won National Championships, now place one on the Cleveland Browns and the other on the Green Bay Packers. It's blindingly apparent that Eddie Lacy has the advantage. Brandon Weeden isn't scaring back any secondaries. Eddie Lacy has been placed in the perfect environment for success, and I will be bubbling with excitement if he's available when I go to draft him.
Dwayne Bowe (WR21, Overall 54)
Dwayne Bowe remains elite. He has incredible skill with both his hands and his feet. He gets open, even when he's doubled, and he catches anything within stretching distance. Now he has a new coach, and a great improvement in QB. The Chiefs' offense will surprise people, and if Dwayne Bowe and Alex Smith can create some quick chemistry, he will be a must-start from Day 1.
James Jones (WR22, Overall 56)
As soon as I heard Greg Jennings was jumping ship in Green Bay, I began contemplating James Jones' stock increase. Now I don't expect another 14 TD season from this guy, but I don't think I will be surprised if it happens again. At WR22, this guy is a STEAL.
Michael Vick (QB16, Overall 118)
Michael Vick has always had his pros and cons, but last year must have been humbling for him. His best asset is obviously his feet. The Chip Kelly offense is perfect for Mike Vick, if he can stay healthy. The focal point of this offense is motion, which will immediately reduce the number of sacks hammering away at that already aging body. He can get out of the pocket, which everyone except Andy Reid seems to understand is where he belongs. Vick never had a problem tossing an accurate short ball, and with this offense he will be throwing much more of those than the mid-long range tosses that got him into trouble. I also believe those quarterback keepers on the option near the goal line will begin converting to 6 points for your fantasy team on a regular basis.
Vernon Davis (TE5, Overall 70)
With Aaron Hernandez's departure and Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark obviously past their prime, the TE spot is looking barren this year. Vernon Davis had nothing short of a miserable last year. I'm electing to deem it an outlier in his otherwise productive career due to the unforeseeable flux in team dynamic in the bay area. This year, however, Alex Smith is gone and the team has committed to the Kaepernick era, and there is no confusion as to the team's identity. Initially I thought Vernon Davis might be subject to a trade, as it didn't appear he would receive his desired role in the offense. Then Michael Crabtree went down. And rumors began sprouting that Davis would be lining up as a WR. This was my confirmation that the 49ers coaching staff was of the same mind as all of us disgruntled fantasy owners; Vernon Davis needs a bigger role, and I believe it will be a big one. Given his uncommon speed for a TE, we very well might see him in the WR spot from time to time, and I think he will return to his role as a serious pain in the ass for defenses in the NFC.
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